Published online in Applied Economics Letters on 3 July 2026.

Published Link:

https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2026.2699440

This paper examines whether U.S.–China geopolitical tensions influence the transmission of oil-market volatility to clean-tanker freight-market volatility. Using monthly data from January 2007 to February 2024, interaction models, quantile regressions and a GARCH-X specification, we find that oil-price volatility is positively associated with freight volatility under normal market conditions, but that this relationship weakens during periods of elevated bilateral tension. The moderating effect is concentrated in the upper tail of the freight-volatility distribution, while geopolitical tensions do not directly affect conditional volatility.