Inflation in transit: The freight–PPI connection
Co-authored with Nektarios Michail. The paper has been published in Economics Letters Volume 256, October 2025, 112637
Published Link:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112637
We assess the pass-through from shipping costs to the euro area PPI using a VECM and both dry bulk (BDI) and containership time charter rates. A 1% rise in containership rates is associated with ~0.1% increase in manufacturing PPI and ~0.04% for dry bulk; historical decomposition suggests up to 40% of post-2021 PPI inflation is attributable to freight rates.
